The Line Divine: Rusty's AFC Breakdown

Buffalo Bills (O/U 11.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 13 wins

Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed by the spirit of Jim Kelly himself. The experts are all over the map - NFL.com's Ali has them at 15-2, Fox Sports says 12-5, while Yahoo Sports notes they're massive -325 favorites to win the AFC East for a sixth straight year. Their schedule sets up beautifully - they open with Baltimore at home (revenge for that playoff heartbreak), get the Patriots twice when New England's still finding itself, and avoid most of the AFC gauntlet until late in the season. Here's a betting nugget: Buffalo's topped their win total seven of the last eight years. Allen's in his prime, Sean McDermott's defense is stout, and they finally have the pieces to make a deep run. Over with confidence.

New York Jets (O/U 5.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 8 wins

Aaron Rodgers is gone to Pittsburgh, and now it's Justin Fields running the show under new coach Aaron Glenn. Fox Sports has them at 8-9, while the NFL.com experts range from 7-10 to 10-7 - a far wider spread than a Republican congressman cruising for sex. Looking at their schedule, they start with a revenge game against Pittsburgh (Rodgers' old team now), get some winnable home games early, but that London trip against Denver could be a backbreaker. Yahoo Sports reminds us they haven't made the playoffs since 2010 - longest drought in professional sports. I'm going over the line but under expectations. This team's got more question marks than a pop quiz at Sunday school.

New England Patriots (O/U 5.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 8 wins

Mike Vrabel's back where he belongs, and Drake Maye's ready to take the reins. Fox Sports calls for 7-10, but here's the kicker - multiple sources say they've got the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. Yahoo Sports notes they haven't beaten their win total three straight years, but they've NEVER gone under four consecutive seasons. They get the Dolphins twice when Miami's imploding, avoid some of the AFC's murder row, and Vrabel knows how to get the most out of less talent. The line screams "over" to me, especially with all that schedule help.

Miami Dolphins (O/U 6.5) - BAD
Rusty's Prediction: 5 wins

Saints preserve us, this team's falling apart faster than my resolve when I see a Vegas odds board. Fox Sports has them at just 4-13, noting all the Tyreek Hill trade drama and organizational dysfunction. Yahoo Sports points out they're 2-11 straight up as underdogs since late 2023, and they're starting this season as road dogs in Indy. Their schedule includes back-to-back nightmares against Baltimore and Buffalo, plus that international trip to Madrid. When even the optimistic experts have you finishing dead last, you know it's bad. Under all day.

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 11.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 12 wins

Lamar Jackson's still in his prime, and this defense can shut down a Sunday service. Fox Sports has them at 11-6, while the NFL.com experts range from 11-6 to 14-3. Looking at their schedule, they get some early tests with Buffalo and Detroit, but Yahoo Sports notes their Super Bowl odds are the second-shortest in franchise history. Here's a key nugget: Lamar's 70-24 in the regular season but 3-5 in the playoffs - this team's built for regular season success. Over.

Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 9.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 11 wins

Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are back healthy, and when those two are clicking, they're more dangerous than whatever I used to transport in unmarked packages. Fox Sports loves this team at 10-7, and one NFL.com expert has them winning the division. Here's a Yahoo Sports gem: among active quarterbacks with 20+ starts, nobody has a better point-spread winning percentage than Burrow at 61.3%. Their schedule's got some tough road tests in Minnesota and Denver early, but they get three straight home games mid-season that could make their season. I'm taking the over on pure talent.

Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 8 wins

Aaron Rodgers at 41 years old running the Steelers offense - it's like watching me try to operate the fancy new soundboard at church. Fox Sports has them at 9-8, noting their brutal schedule against the NFC North and AFC North rivals. Yahoo Sports points out the Steelers haven't had a losing season in 21 straight years, but Mike Tomlin's never coached a 41-year-old quarterback either. Their schedule includes a nice trip to Dublin against the Vikings, but they also have to deal with Baltimore and Cincinnati twice each. I'm riding the under, barely.

Cleveland Browns (O/U 4.5) - BAD
Rusty's Prediction: 4 wins

Five quarterbacks on the roster and none of them inspiring confidence - that's like having five different brands of fertilizer and they all smell the same. Fox Sports has them at 4-13, and Yahoo Sports notes they went 4-13 ATS last season, including a six-game losing streak to end the year. Their schedule's absolutely brutal - they face the Packers, Lions, Ravens twice, Bengals twice, and Steelers twice. That's a schedule harder than explaining your past to a parole officer. Under.

Now, let me tell you about the lesson I learned from Sal "The Calculator" during our morning coffee talks in the yard. He said, "Rusty, in this game, you gotta separate the wheat from the chaff, the teams that believe from the teams that are just hoping." Sitting here in Doon, Iowa, surrounded by actual wheat fields, that lesson hits different. The AFC North has two teams that believe (Baltimore and Cincinnati), one that's hoping their aging quarterback magic works (Pittsburgh), and one that's already planning for the next harvest season (Cleveland).

Houston Texans (O/U 9.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 10 wins

DeMeco Ryans has this team playing disciplined football, and C.J. Stroud's sophomore season should be special. Fox Sports has them at 9-8, noting their brutal first-place schedule with Bills and Ravens on the road. But Yahoo Sports reveals a key trend: since 2006, Houston's 13-5-1 to the over on their preseason win totals. Their schedule starts with a potential trap game at the Rams, but they get some nice home games against the Bucs and 49ers. This team's got the talent and coaching to take another step forward. Over.

Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 7.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 7 wins

New coach Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence trying to bounce back, and a schedule that includes London against the Rams. Fox Sports has them at 6-11, but Yahoo Sports notes an interesting trend: they're 16-3-1 ATS against the Colts since 2015. Their schedule's got some early opportunities against Carolina and Cincinnati, but they're in the AFC South buzzsaw with Houston. The experts see improvement from last year's 4-13 disaster, but not by much. I'm taking the under, but just barely.

Tennessee Titans (O/U 5.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 6 wins

Cam Ward's rookie season could go either way, but Fox Sports has them at 7-10, noting their schedule isn't intimidating for a last-place finisher. Here's a brutal Yahoo Sports stat: they were 2-15 ATS last season, worst in the NFL. But their schedule's manageable with games against the Colts twice and some winnable divisional matchups. Rookie quarterbacks can surprise you, and Ward's got more tools than most. I'm leaning slightly over - sometimes new beginnings work.

Indianapolis Colts (O/U 6.5) - BAD
Rusty's Prediction: 5 wins

This team's got talent but no consistent quarterback play, which is like having a John Deere tractor with a lawnmower engine. Yahoo Sports drops a devastating stat: they're 1-13-1 in season openers since 2010, including 1-5 at home. Their schedule includes a trip to Berlin against the Falcons (which sounds fun but won't help their record), and games against Kansas City and Houston on the road. Fox Sports has them at 8-9, but I see more struggles ahead. Under.

Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 11.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 12 wins

Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and three Super Bowl rings in five years. Fox Sports has them at a gaudy 13-4, while Yahoo Sports notes they've won nine straight division titles and cleared their win total 10 of the last 12 seasons. They're opening the season in São Paulo against the Chargers, which is either awesome or a complete circus waiting to happen. Their schedule's loaded with revenge games - Eagles rematch, Ravens at home, Bills on the road. Even if they're not quite as dominant as recent years, you don't bet against greatness. Over.

Denver Broncos (O/U 9.5) - GOOD
Rusty's Prediction: 11 wins

Bo Nix's sophomore season with Sean Payton coaching should be something special. Fox Sports is more cautious at 9-8, warning about teams having tape on Nix now. But Yahoo Sports notes they easily cleared their 5.5 win total last year after a seven-year under streak. They've got a London game against the Jets which could swing either way, but their home schedule is very manageable. The roster additions this offseason were impressive, and Payton's offense should click better in year two. I'm taking the over - this team's ready for another step forward.

Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 9.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 9 wins

Jim Harbaugh's got this team playing physical football, and Fox Sports loves them at 11-6, even suggesting they could win the AFC West. But Yahoo Sports notes some concerning trends - they're 3-19 against Kansas City since 2014, and that São Paulo opener adds complications. Their schedule's got some nasty spots with road games in Denver and Kansas City, plus they travel a league-high 37,086 miles in 2025. In this loaded division, 9 wins feels about right. Under.

Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 6.5) - SO-SO
Rusty's Prediction: 7 wins

Pete Carroll and Geno Smith reunited, which is like getting the old gang back together for one more harvest season. Fox Sports has them at 7-10, noting Carroll's championship pedigree but talent deficiencies at key positions. Yahoo Sports reminds us they've made the playoffs just twice since 2003, so expectations should be tempered. Their schedule starts rough with New England and the Chargers, but they get some winnable games against the Browns and Jaguars. In this division, staying competitive would be an achievement. Slight over.

After studying the lines, the schedules, and listening to what the football prophets are preaching, here are the AFC picks I'm actually putting the church's audiovisual fund behind:

1. BUFFALO BILLS OVER 11.5 WINS This is my max bet. Josh Allen's in his prime, they've got revenge motivation after that Ravens playoff loss, and their schedule sets up beautifully. When experts are debating between 12-5 and 15-2, you know this team's special. They finally break through to the Super Bowl this year.

2. MIAMI DOLPHINS UNDER 6.5 WINS This organization is imploding faster than my old life when the authorities got involved. Locker room drama, potential trades, and a brutal schedule that includes Madrid, Baltimore, and Buffalo twice. Most experts have them finishing last. Sometimes the obvious play is obvious.

3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVER 5.5 WINS Here's my sleeper special. They've got the easiest AFC schedule, Mike Vrabel knows how to coach, and Drake Maye's ready to take a step forward. Everyone's sleeping on this team, but 8 wins is very achievable with their schedule. This line screams value.

CINCINNATI BENGALS OVER 9.5 WINS When Burrow and Chase are healthy, this offense is unstoppable. The experts love them, Rank has them winning the division. The talent's there, but I'm showing discipline and sticking to my top three.

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 4.5 WINS 40-year-old Joe Flacco and the worst schedule in football. This should be easy money, but I've learned not to get too greedy with my action.

The AFC's loaded with talent this year, brothers and sisters. The Bills and Ravens look like the cream of the crop, while teams like Denver and Cincinnati could make serious noise. Meanwhile, franchises like Miami and Cleveland are staring at long, difficult seasons ahead.

Remember, these predictions come from a man who once thought the best way to blend in was to wear a "Support Local Agriculture" hat while conducting decidedly non-agricultural business. But sometimes divine intervention works through reformed characters to show the path to NFL enlightenment, even when that divine intervention happens to be taking place in the middle of Iowa corn country, where the most exciting thing on Sunday is the Lutheran church potluck down the street.

Stay blessed, stay disciplined with your bankroll, and remember - in the AFC, every Sunday is a day of reckoning, whether you're in the big city or small-town Iowa.

Peace be with you (and your betting slips),
Rusty "The A/V Guy" Marconi
Our Lady of the Immaculate Reception
Doon, Iowa