Yes ladies and gentlemen, the New York Jets went to London this week to play Denver, but they were still the Jets. Meanwhile, former Jets quarterback turned Fox sports analyst Mark Sanchez watched the game from jail after an incident where he drunkenly assaulted a nearly 70 year old truck driver (who proceeded to stab Sanchez several times). The soon-to-be-former Fox employee was released from jail, but is expected back in court on felony charges in November.
On the field, the Jets looked dreadful out there, even if the 13-11 scoreboard suggests a different story. QB Justin Fields completed a total of nine passes and was sacked nine times. His contribution to the Jets offense this week? Negative 10 yards. To be fair, the entire offensive performance combined was 82 yards, but for a quarterback to play an entire game for negative yardage is one step short of pathetic. And yet, they were in position to actually win this game, deep into the 4th quarter. On what was clearly going to be their last possession, they had a 4th and 8 play from the 44 a spot that would represent a 62 yard field goal. Even though they have veteran kicker Nick Folkes (who had scored all 9 of the NY offensive points of the day already), and even though their quarterback was costing them more yards than he gained, the coaches decided to run a passing play, which failed. Game over. I’ll bet it was a long flight back to LaGuardia, even without the effects of the storm out there.
At 0-6, the Jets are all but officially out of playoff contention in the AFC. They’re in good company with the 1-5 Titans, Browns, Dolphins and (still surprisingly bad) Ravens, with the 2-4 Raiders and Bengals looking to join them any week now.
Meanwhile, at a similarly surprising 4-1 in a weak AFC North division, the Pittsburgh Steelers are practically playoff-bound already. The 4-1 (and playing Atlanta tonight) Bills aren’t really looking like a complete team, but they’re probably going to end up winning the AFC East anyway. However, the 4-2 Patriots are right on their heels, and the Patriots have momentum on their side. 4-2 also puts them in the wild-card race, and between that and the uncertainty in Buffalo, they’re in a better playoff position than they’ve been in in years.
Wrapping up the rest of the AFC, the 5-1 Colts or the 4-2 Jaguars will take the AFC South, with the other one likely still in the wild card race, and it’s still kind of a tossup in the West, for everyone except the Raiders.
Probably getting in: Colts, Steelers
Trying to stay in: LA Chargers, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars
Trying to get in: Denver, Kansas City
Fooling Themselves: Las Vegas, Houston, Cincinnati.
Tampa Bay hosted the San Francisco 49ers and comfortably beat them 30-19. Baker Mayfield put up what may be his best numbers of the year against an increasingly battered SF defensive corps. Fred Warner (49ers linebacker, and probably one of the best in the NFL at the position) is out for the rest of the season with a badly broken ankle. The thing is, despite Tampa’s 30 points of offense, their defense probably won this game. The Bucs’ blitz packages mostly worked, the line managed to basically shut off the SF running game (67 total yards on 22 carries), and the secondary picked off two Mac Jones passes. With the win, Tampa Bay moves to 5-1 and into the lead in a very competitive NFC…
Probably getting in: Tampa Bay
Fighting to stay in: Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit, Seattle
Fighting to get in: San Francisco, LA Rams, Carolina
Still relevant: Minnesota, Atlanta(*), Chicago(*)
Probably fooling themselves: Dallas, Chicago(*), Atlanta (*)
Definitely fooling themselves: Arizona, NY Giants
(*) These teams are all playing tonight. A win keeps them relevant, a loss makes them a lot less so. This brings a bit of motivation to Monday night, yeah?
Which brings us to tonight’s games…
First, the 4-1 Bills go to Atlanta to take on the 2-2 Falcons on the FieldTurf CORE system of Mercedes-Benz field. This batch of FieldTurf was installed in 2024, and removed briefly this summer to be replaced with FIFA-quality grass for some world cup club matches, then re-installed before this NFL season began. Though the soccer players didn’t like the hastily installed natural stuff (the Argentinian team filed an official complaint about it), the NFL players’ survey suggest that the carpet they play on the rest of the year is one of the best artificial playing surfaces in the NFL.
This has the potential to be an interesting game. Atlanta is coming off of a bye week (with a win over Washington the week before), and is healthy and rested. The Bills have been looking a little inconsistent, but have managed to keep it together enough to keep winning. Josh Allen, despite playing half of his games exposed to the elements in Buffalo, strongly prefers throwing in a dome (the roof will be open in Atlanta tonight, but it’s still a dome). On the other side, Michael Penix (a tough name to have in a JV locker room, I’m sure), will be making his Monday-night debut and may have more nerves than usual.
Watch the momentum of this game. If the Bills can turn on the offense early, especially the passing offense, then they’ll probably control the whole game. If Atlanta’s defense can come up with a big stop or a takeaway in the first quarter that turns into fast points for Penix and the offense, the game is likely to go the other way. Watch for Atlanta to use a lot of pre-snap defensive motions and changing looks, which is something they use a lot, and has been very effective when used by other teams against Buffalo this season.
The Bills are favored by 4-4.5 depending on where you look. The over-under is 50. The smart money likes Atlanta +4.5. It is apparently not alone in this… there are reports from the books that while the vast majority of the spread bets for this game are on Buffalo, most of the money is on the Falcons (a much smaller number of much larger bets), which suggests that the professionals see some value. The Bills are 0-3 against the spread in their last three games.
And then, there’s the second game. The 2-2 Chicago Bears escape their ICE-infested city to go to Landover, MD to take on the Commmanders on the Bermuda grass surface of Northwest Stadium (no longer FedEx Field). The sod they use is believed to be a proprietary breed of Latitude 36 grass, grown on a special plastic base called a “GameOnGrass” system. This stadium and its field was ranked as the second worst in the league by the players (behind the notoriously awful MetLife Stadium in NJ), and absolutely nobody is disappointed that the team will be moving to a new field, back in their rightful home in the District of Columbia, in 2030.
The Bears and Commanders last met in the middle of the season last year, and the game ended with an absurd hail-mary pass that gave Washington an unlikely win. Curiously, it kind of set the tone for the second half of both teams’ seasons. Tonight, Chicago is looking for a little redemption, and Caleb Williams is looking a lot better with another year of experience (and he’ll be playing against a Washington defense that gives up a lot of long-yardage passing plays). If only that improvement were also true for the Bears defense, this game would look different. Chicago hasn’t shown any ability to stop the run. Washington uses the run, RPO, and play-action on a disproportionate number of plays, especially if you count QB running yards. Jayden Daniels is coming off of a knee injury, and it’s clear he’s not at 100%, but if his mobility has improved from last week’s win over the Chargers, it’ll probably be enough to keep the Commanders in the lead. But if Chicago can shut down or at least slow down the run, and keep Williams upright long enough for him to chuck the ball, they’ll own the game. Either way, look for a lot of pass attempts in the 9-15 yard range, and a few for 30+, from both teams.
A win for Chicago keeps them just barely relevant in the NFC North (The 3-1-1 Packers and 4-2 Lions are in control there). A win for Washington will put them into a tie with the 4-2 Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East. The Eagles look like a team that’s falling apart right now, so their time on top of the division seems very limited.
Washington is favored by 5, with the over/under at 49.5. The Smart Money likes the over, by a bunch. The five point spread seems about right, but there are big chances that this game becomes an absolute shootout in the third quarter.
Both of the night games have early playoff implications, which hopefully will keep them interesting. Enjoy them.