Yes ladies and gentlemen, both of the two remaining undefeated teams lost this week, against scrappy underdogs who simply outlasted and outplayed them. The Bills, Colts, Eagles, 49ers, Lions and Buccaneers are all 4-1. The Steelers (!!) are 3-1 and didn’t play this week. And tonight, a home win from Jacksonville would bring the Jaguars to 4-1.
Buffalo hosted New England in the Sunday Night game, and was simply upstaged 23-20. Buffalo was playing inconsistent offense all night, Josh Allen never really found his groove, and between that and the 11 team penalties, they didn’t even look like they wanted to win. Meanwhile (former Buffalo Bill) Stefon Diggs and (second year QB) Drake Maye were reliably torching the Bills secondary, but having trouble with consistency and short yardage. The game really shouldn’t have been anywhere near this close, but when Patriots kicker Andy Borregales hit a 52 yarder with about 15 seconds left, it finally sealed the game and the right team got to win. 4-1 Buffalo goes to 2-2 Atlanta for next Monday’s night game. 3-2 New England goes to 1-4 New Orleans.
It’s pretty notable that this is the first year that the Patriots have started with a winning record after 5 weeks since 2019. They’re almost done getting the smell of Bill Belichick out of the place. Meanwhile, Belichick himself is making no friends in North Carolina, because is very clearly messing up what once used to be a decent ACC team.
Philadelphia outplayed Denver for three solid quarters, and were up 17-3 in the 4th quarter, seemingly ready to coast to a 5-0 start. Jalen Hurts looked good out there, even throwing a couple of nearly perfect 40+ yard tosses. For 45 solid minutes, it looked like an easy Eagles win. Then Bo Nix came alive in the 4th quarter. The Denver QB went 9-for-10 in the fourth, including a touchdown and an extremely ballsy 2 point conversion which brought the score to 18-17 Denver. They managed to boot in an additional field goal to win 21-17, which wasn’t sealed until a final Hail Mary pass at :00 was knocked out of the endzone. The game started as a bit of a snoozer, but the fourth quarter more than made up for it. 4-1 Philly goes to NY to take on the Giants. The 3-2 Broncos go to London to play the Jets.
Yes, the 0-5 Jets, hanging out as the only winless team left in the league (with no end to losing in sight). Shiny new head coach Aaron Glenn’s job is far from safe, though with the Jets near perfect record of churning through coaches (for those counting along, that’s 5 head coaches in 9 years), his job was probably threatened about 15 seconds after he signed the contract. To be fair to this coach, the quality of play in East Rutherford has been atrocious for longer than some rookies have been alive, so it will come as no surprise to any of them that at the end of the season they will sampling Garret Wilson’s famous onion dip while watching the playoffs from home, just like Jets players have been doing every year since 2010.
Joining the Jets in the bottom of the standings are the 1-4 Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, Ravens, Titans, Giants, and Saints. It is not too soon to start talking about draft order for any of them.
Which brings us to tonight’s game, and it should be a good one…
Tonight, the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs go to the muggy swamp of Jacksonville Florida, to take on the unexpectedly decent 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars on the notoriously bad Tifway 419 Bermuda grass surface of Everbank Stadium. After years of field troubles caused primarily by using the same stadium for college games on Saturday and NFL games on Sunday, the grass’s days are numbered. Jacksonville is currently building the “Stadium of the Future” next to the current spot, and is currently planning on using artificial turf.
The Chiefs started this year 0-2, before climbing back to 2-2 by defeating the Giants and Ravens. They have still not won a game against a good NFL team this season, and their overall offensive performance is way below expectations. They’re coming into Duval County averaging around 24 points per game, and hoping to prove that their offense doesn’t suck against teams with above-average secondaries. Meanwhile, Jacksonville spent most of its offseason rebuilding its defense. Through 5 weeks this season, the Jags have intercepted nine balls and picked up four fumbles (the highest number of takeaways in the league so far). Last year’s Jags defense had 9 takeaways for the season (the worst in the league last year). This is probably going to play a big role in this game.
The Chiefs are favored by 3.5, which is too many. I expect Mahomes to be picked off at least once, maybe even twice tonight (odds on “at least one INT” as a prop bet are -110 right now). I do think that it’s likely to be a close game, and it’s absolutely winnable for the Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes will still take Cris Collinsworth and the entire officiating staff out to dinner tomorrow, so expect them to treat him the way he’s become accustomed to, likely at an inopportune time that changes the course of the game.
The Smart Money would take the Jags +3.5 as the home underdog if it weren’t for the Mahomes/Referees’ relationship and the fact that it’s a Monday night game (both of which advantage the Chiefs). Instead, it sits this one out, but seriously considered the interceptions prop bet.
Enjoy the game.